Quinnipiac (3/19-23, “Republican voters,” no trendlines):
Pat Toomey (R): 41
Arlen Specter (R-inc): 27
Undecided: 28
(MoE: ±4.8%)
Pretty amazing. Plenty of undecideds, but Toomey never had a poll this good in 2004 – nor did Specter have one this bad. The closest Quinnipiac had it was 48-42 Specter shortly before the primary. Even more surprising is that this poll appears to be of registered voters, not likely voters, and polling from last time showed Specter understandably doing better with the former group. If he’s already faring this poorly among RVs….
In any event, it looks like Specter has moved into reverse Lieberman territory. His favorability rating is just 29-47 among members of his own party, while Dems really like him – 60-16. With numbers like these, it’s no surprise that we’ve heard chatter about a party switch, and that Specter’s been busy trying to open up PA’s GOP primary to independents.
As long as this poll isn’t some crazy outlier, this ought to be a hell of a race. Andgarden has more.
UPDATE: There’s a second poll out on this primary. Franklin & Marshall (PDF) (3/17-22, registered Republicans, no trendlines):
Arlen Specter (R-inc): 33
Pat Toomey (R): 18
Peg Luksik (R): 2
Other: 5
Undecided: 42
(MoE: ±6.8%)
Better nums for Specter, of course, but a very tiny sample (n=211), and as I said above, he never had a survey this bad five years ago. I should also add that Specter’s shameful flip-flop on EFCA has obviously infuriated his erstwhile labor allies – but it hasn’t tamped down criticism from the right, either. He’s in a very tough place right now.
Political suicide by primary.
The Politico blurb by Josh Kraushaar on the Q-poll was updated to add reference to a new Franklin & Marshall poll that has Specter up on Toomey 33-18, with a whopping 42% undecided, and 2% going for that unknown wingnut whose name I can’t remember.
Still, 33% is pretty bad for a multi-term Senator in his own party, and F&M also has Specter’s overall re-elect at 40-46 with the overall electorate.
Ultimately either poll shows Specter is just about a dead duck, and Toomey’s challenge is simply to get out of his own way by not doing or saying anything wingnut voters would perceive as stupid (as opposed to what actually IS stupid, which is everything wingnuts think and say).
F&M just 211. Even if Specter is ahead 33-18, we’re talking about a 30-year-incumbent hovering at 33%, with 42% undecided.
but he won’t announce it until 2010
Specter just seems to be in obstinant mode right now. he wants to show that he can do what he wants, and get what he wants, even when evidence suggests otherwise.
It used to be that labor supported Specter so he won in the general election and moderate Republicans carried him in the primary.
Now he has everybody mad at him. How do we hate him? Let me count the ways:
1. Conservative Republicans hate him because he has always been pro choice. They are one issue, anti-abortion voters and hate Specter – love Toomey.
2. Moderate Republicans – there aren’t any. They all switched to Democrats so they could vote for Hillary or Obama. 1 million primary voters for Specter – gone. Pennsylvania has closed primaries.
3. Pro-labor Democrats – just burned that bridge. I already have half a dozen E-Mails from labor groups telling how MAD/BETRAYED they are. Just what Specter needs – an energized opposition to get out the vote for his opponent!
4. Catholic Democrats – lots of them don’t like his pro-choice stand either and PA has a LOT of Catholics. A Bob Casey Democrat wins in a landslide.
5. Women – we still resent his treatment of Anita Hill.
6. Young people – they are all Democrats now and would never consider voting for an old relic like Specter.
7. Blacks – 99 pecent for Obama. They carry the state for the Democrats every time. His support for Clarence Thomas? Kiss of death.
Stick a fork in him, he’s done.